Aging involves a progressive decline in the body’s ability to heal from damage (a property known as resilience) and a gradual increase in the risk of age-related diseases like cancers, diabetes, and cardiovascular diseases. Aging research aims to increase lifespan and healthspan through pharmacological and lifestyle interventions that enhance cellular repair and reduce exposure to harmful substances. Findings of a recent report propose a possible maximum age for humans.
As the field of aging research grows, several aging “clocks” have been proposed as ways to measure biological age. These clocks use blood markers, DNA patterns, and physical activity measures to estimate the risk of age-related disease more accurately than chronological age. In younger populations, chronological age and biological age are more closely related, but as populations age, the variation of biological age increases. By modeling the rate of these aging dynamics, calculating a theoretical maximum human lifespan is possible.
The authors collected data from over 500,000 participants of the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES), a long-term study of people living in the United States (US), and the United Kingdom (UK) Biobank, a long-term study of people living in the UK. They based their assessments on participants' complete blood count, which measures the number and type of white blood cells, red blood cells, and platelets and the concentration of hemoglobin. They also retrieved physical activity data measured using a wrist-worn activity tracker from more than 5,000 NHANES participants.
The authors created a statistical model and trained it to predict the risk of disease and death using blood marker data and disease and death rates from the US and UK databases. The model produced a single risk value called the Dynamic Organism State Indicator, which could be used to accurately predict the onset of numerous age-related diseases. The model predicted a loss of resilience and a maximum life span between ages 120 and 150 years. The authors used activity tracker data to create a second model of maximum lifespan, which predicted a maximum age between 110 and 170 years.
The authors concluded that human life does have a maximum length due to loss of resilience that cannot be extended by any known interventions. However, they suggested their research may be a step toward the development of life-extending therapies.
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