Since the 1990s, longevity researchers have attempted to estimate the maximum human lifespan; however, supercentenarians (i.e., people who live beyond 110 years) routinely break these estimates. Additional research is needed to provide more accurate models of aging for use in planning government programs and economic policy. Authors of a paper released this year report their updated estimates for the maximum age at death in the year 2100.

The existence of a fixed age limit for humans is an area of debate, with some scientists theorizing that biological processes like the shortening of telomeres are irreversible, determined by genetics, and a strong predictor of death. However, others argue that there is no limit to human lifespan and that age-related risk of death plateaus around 110 years of age. This uncertainty is partly due to a lack of consistent record keeping with verified age information. Research institutions have recently created systems such as the International Database on Longevity, a database containing validated supercentenarian life lengths from 15 countries, to aid in future research.

The investigators used a statistical model created by the authors of a 2017 report on maximum lifespan. This model estimates the survival probability of supercentenarians, meaning the likelihood of surviving each year beyond age 110 years. For the current report, the researchers used updated data from the International Database on Longevity, which currently includes records from more than 1,100 supercentenarians and almost 14,000 semi-supercentenarians (people who live between 105 and 109 years). They also added additional projections to the model regarding future levels of fertility and life expectancy across multiple countries and extended the projection window to the year 2100.

The authors found that the probability of breaking the current maximum reported age at death (122 years and 164 days, set by Jeanne Calment of France) this century is nearly 100 percent; the probability of a person reaching age 126 is approximately 89 percent; and the probability of a person reaching age 130 is nearly 13 percent. While the model did not exclude the possibility of a person living to 135 or 140 years this century, it is extremely unlikely. These estimates are in line with most other projections.

The authors concluded that these data do not support the existence of a maximum human age and forecast substantial increases in the number of supercentenarians in the coming decades.

• Link to full report.